Trump’s new tariffs could send shockwaves through the U.S. auto industry, warns Deutsche Bank, predicting higher car prices and a supply chain squeeze by mid-2025. In a late March 2025 report, the bank detailed how protectionist policies will ripple beyond foreign automakers, impacting everyone from suppliers to buyers—and even American giants like Ford aren’t immune.
Tariffs Hit Every Layer
Deutsche Bank’s analysis, covering nearly every U.S.-sold model, reveals that tariffs will burden original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), dealers, Tier-1 suppliers, and consumers alike. Initially, the bank thought components like seats might dodge the hit, but updated U.S. Trade documents now confirm: “All parts of the vehicle (including tires)” face tariffs. This shift amplifies costs, especially with non-U.S. content—like 25% of Ford’s engine parts from Mexico—higher than expected.
Short-Term Fixes, Long-Term Shifts
In the short term, automakers may shuffle U.S. production, add shifts, or absorb supplier costs, mirroring Covid-era tactics, says Deutsche. Long-term, onshoring could surge—Reuters reported in April 2025 that Tesla is eyeing a new Texas factory to offset tariffs. Yet, such moves take years, and political uncertainty looms large.
Consumers Feel the Pinch
The real sting? Car prices. Deutsche Bank forecasts the average transaction price (ATP) will climb as buyers shoulder tariff costs, slashing its 2025 U.S. sales forecast to 15.4 million units—a drop echoed by AutoNews citing demand risks. Tesla and Ford fare better with North American roots, while Hyundai faces a tougher road due to its global supply chain.
A Risky Bet
Deutsche warns this tariff gamble could backfire, squeezing margins and hitting consumers already reeling from high prices—up 20% since 2020, per BLS. “The burden of tariffs will be shared,” the bank notes, but unevenly, with potential fallout by late 2025 if costs spiral further.
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